Did the democratic process work this time? Yes / No / Maybe. ...

Argument: The democratic process worked this time.

            Despite the messiness of the political process, this election cycle has done what it is supposed to do. It allowed voters to focus on issues that are at the core of democracy and governance. And it may – just may - have alleviated the biggest problem of our democracy: intransigent polarization that prohibits compromise.

            There will always be a sizeable percentage of the electorate that opposes the other side. There are about 120 million votes likely to be cast this time. (That is about 50-60% of the potential number of voters). Even in the most lopsided elections, a presidential landslide in the popular vote means getting 5% more than your opponent.

            In past wipeouts, the losing side gets 38-40% of the vote — that includes FDR in 1932, LBJ in ’64, Reagan in 1984.

            Since the 1990’s, losers average more than 45% of the vote; the margin of victory averages less than 5%.

            The result has been an electorate divided down the middle on almost every issue. That means gridlock . . . divided government, refusal to compromise, divisive rhetoric. Do nothing Congress . . . high disapproval ratings by everyone on all sides.

Although the media has found some who hate both alternatives, and some who can’t decide, and some who don’t care . . . the truth is that there is a clear choice this time and the choice might make a real difference in our future.

This election may move the needle:

            By his extreme rhetoric, Trump did us a service: he crystalized for many voters where they drew the line in their feelings about core democratic values. And many abandoned him and crossed the line to the other side . . . or at least retreated to the sidelines.

            A few Sanders followers did the same.  

            Trump may lose (and Clinton win) by a landslide. His base of supporters may prove to be smaller than feared. If so, Can this break the deadlock that causes dissatisfaction with government? Here are the reasons why it might.

            Trump’s small cadre of surrogate spinners hope for a revival of the “silent majority” that backed Nixon to victory against the “elite liberal media” and “unwashed protesters” of the time. But their time ended forty years ago. The “majority” is now reduced to a dwindling minority, overwhelmed and enervated by the rapid social changes they couldn’t stop.

            There are far fewer voters who are truly undecided by this time. Our voter turnout is always low compared to other countries. We take our democracy for granted and we fail to educate and inspire vast chunks of the population enough to take the time to pay attention. There is a direct correlation between education and voter turnout (although college students seem to be impervious to any inspiration to vote in numbers comparable to the grandparents).

            But the lengthy and loud process that has seen large vocal crowds at events, and high viewer ratings has been reflected in arguments around water coolers, at parties and family dinners all over the country for many months.

            More people paid attention in this cycle, continuing a trend that began with Obama in 2008. Sanders expanded the base of small donors that Obama had begun. And even Trump benefitted from a base of donors who might have given to evangelists instead.

Clear choices were offered this time. Despite the cries of those who complain that neither candidate deserves their vote, the fact is that a vast majority of people have seen enough differences between them to make up their minds to vote for one of them and against the other.

The primaries did the job, reflecting the mood of the people:

- In the Democratic primary, there were two clear choices. Sanders urged a more radical progressive agenda. Clinton’s program suggested more incremental progress. Generally, the perception of the radical vs. the moderate was correct. Clinton supporters argued that Sanders was proposing unrealistic, unattainable goals. Sanders people distrusted Clinton’s coziness with the established powers that they felt needed to be fought.

   

         These two visions and notions were rather sharply drawn and gave voters enough information to at least think seriously about their own preferences. They gave Clinton a solid win while forcing her to strongly consider the issues that Sanders raised.

            That is how it is supposed to work.

- The Republican primary exposed the weaknesses of the party’s established leaders. The Tea Party movement that emerged in 2010 to elect a sizeable cadre in Congress and took over 30 state houses showed disillusion with the failure to achieve unrealistic promised goals.

            The frustrated Right appreciated Trump’s snarly ridicule of those elected Republicans who failed to overthrow Obama and his far left agenda: Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Chris Christie, John Kasich, Paul Ryan, Mitch McConnell, John McCain, Mitt Romney – all pitiful compromisers in their view were victims of Trump’s attacks.

            From the perspective of conservative voters, they controlled the Senate and the House, the Supreme Court, and state governments. Yet, they could not prevent socialized medicine (Obamacare), destruction of traditional marriage, and the flow of Hispanics, drugs, and Islamic terrorists. Both Bush presidencies were disappointments: the federal government grew, the economy shrunk, jobs were lost, wars were disastrous, our enemies prospered.  

           

- A plurality of Republican voters chose a populist, narcissist, chauvinist, authoritarian non-politician billionaire to voice their bitterness at the changes they could not stop.

            The immigration / terrorism issues that Trump made the center of his campaign from his first speech stimulated the portion of my generation that lost every battle of the cultural wars of the last 60 years, particularly equal rights for African Americans, women, and homosexuals.

            Projections are that America in the near future will no longer be mostly white. Diminishing white male Christian dominance is a subject for panic for that demographic.    

            This may be a last stand for that aging bloc.  

- Exposure of Trump’s flaws during the long, long campaign has peeled away huge chunks of Republican voters.

            First, his vicious attacks on primary opponents eliminated Bush supporters, Kasich backers, even Cruz followers. Koch Brothers and other traditional GOP deep pockets backed off. Of course, he negated any possible inroads into the Democratic hold of any minority voters.

            He lost support from GOP security / military experts with his fixation about Putin, his impulsive shrugs about nuclear proliferation, and his rash discounting of NATO as if it was a losing business. His cruel sniping at “loser” McCain as a captive, and at a Muslim father and mother of an American war hero offended many patriotic veterans who should have been his most loyal backers.

            Of course, his biggest loss is among almost all women: whatever age, ethnic identity, working or not, educated or not, Christian or not.

            He couldn’t hide his blatant sexism.

            It undermined any claim he might have made of moral superiority over the Clintons.   

        It exposed his outdated notion of manhood, one that even conservative women with hard drinking dirty joking husbands could not abide.

The choice between Trump and Clinton becomes very clear.

          

 The debates produced a clear result. All polls showed that voters favored Clinton by about 2 to 1. That is an enormous margin, especially in a country that has been so divided for so long.

The debates received record viewing on all media sources for all age and gender groups. In a campaign where fears of enthusiasm gaps and voter suppression are rampant, this fact is encouraging.

Of course, Trump is the main reason for the heightened public fascination with the election news and entertainment. He is his own reality show, soap opera, talk show, stand-up comedy act. He moves the ratings needle for cable infotainment like no one. He has received billions in free airtime from them, and they probably think it was well spent.

The possible outcome:

- Trump may lose the popular vote and electoral college vote by a landslide.

- If Clinton wins big, she may assume she has a mandate for her program.

             BUT: Bill Clinton thought he had a mandate for change in 1992. He had urged universal health care in the campaign and when he won, he thought it was what the voters wanted. He spent precious political capital losing that fight that was led by Hillary.

- Democrats may win control of the Senate, and reduce the GOP House majority.

            BUT: The seats Republicans lose in Congress will probably be those of former “moderate” or at least less extreme conservatives (like Ayotte of N.H.). This could stiffen the intransigence against any compromise.

The optimistic view:

Proof that the Tea Party core is not as potent as it was thought to be (just as the past movements like Christian Coalition showed weakness) may embolden Paul Ryan to compromise on some issues.

Clinton’s centrism (given a mandate) may permit her to deal with Ryan, McCain, Graham, Flake, and a few other rational members of the loyal opposition. The first and most doable issue might be immigration reform. Borders and a path to citizenship can be worked out in a comprehensive form without frittering all her capital.

            The advantages to both sides of settling this issue once and for all are so obvious that it seems that it should be one issue that could be decided, once Trump’s extreme rhetoric is relegated to an impotent minority on the extreme right.

            Whether Ryan has the courage to risk alienation of even this diminishing constituency is an open question.

Once having compromised on this issue, he will have to appear tougher on others, but he can argue a net gain by re-claiming a portion of the growing Hispanic vote for the party.

Another area ripe for compromise is criminal justice reform. There is a consensus for change from the Draconian sentences and prison overpopulation, a return to the emphasis on rehabilitation, and drug programs. Legalization of marijuana is on the table – if the state experiments in Colorado and California prove regulation and taxation to be feasible

Clinton will face a challenge from her left on important economic issues: Taxes, corporate regulation, trade. The wish list includes college financial relief.

            Republicans will fight these changes, but probably with more traditional arguments. The Tea Party intransigence that forced government closures proved to lose votes for the party and the election gives rational leaders the stronger argument.

            Ryan, the self-proclaimed Budget maven is going to want to fight for balanced budget, reduced debt, and the other traditional GOP issues. Warren and Sanders are going to fight the good fight in Congress over this and Clinton is going to have to figure what she can get away with.

            It will be a stern test of Clinton’s claimed negotiation skills and experience.

Foreign Policy

In foreign policy, Trump’s contribution has been to crystalize the public’s recognition of Putin as a real threat to American interests in the middle east and eastern Europe.

            The cyber war with Russia will heat up and a consensus will emerge to seal the leaks for security reasons.

            Clinton will have trouble with her left on foreign trade treaties and humanitarian efforts in the Middle East and Africa.

            By inauguration day, the Mosul offensive may have progressed well, pushing ISIS out of power in the city and reducing the “caliphate” to a shell of its former pretensions. Syria will be the next battleground and provide the biggest foreign policy challenge to the new administration.

            The foundation laid by Obama: Shiites, Kurds, Syrian rebels, Turks, and US technology, air power, advice, coaching, intel, rangers . . . rather than massive US ground forces . . . should allow Clinton some leverage against Assad & Putin in negotiations for an end to the crisis.

            Clinton will have to deal with North Korea, Israel, and unforeseen crises. Whether she will prove to be the hawk / interventionist that liberals and libertarians fear or whether she will be a wise consensus builder, we can’t tell.

            The point is that the voters this season were presented with clear choices and enough evidence to decide their future. 

"THE FUTURE IS WHERE WE WILL SPEND THE REST OF OUR LIVES" ... CRISWELL

THE FUTURE IS HERE

When I was young and thought I was going to hell along with the rest of the world unless I worried about it, I survived by making a list of my worries. I found that micro fears (personal worries, such as cancer) paled before my many macro horrors (eg: nuclear fallout).

Yet, even in a really bad year for macro trouble (e.g., 1968) my imagination faltered after listing so many ills, resorting to minimal angst about things like UFO's. There may not be any more items on the macro list today than there were in 1968 but they seem worse because so many of these problems appear to be intractable.

Even in the depressing ‘’60’s” when assassinations, wars, crime, racial strife, were rampant, there was still a sense that we “shall” eventually “overcome” the problems. Today we are justified if we are far more pessimistic.  So many of today’s problems have passed the event horizon: the point of no return. They are too complicated to be solved. 

Here are some examples — not necessarily in order of importance or insolubility: 

The boomer generation scourge. The most entitled and largest generation in American history is about to use up all the remaining resources that they haven't yet sopped up. By continuing to live, they (we) endanger the prosperity of our children and grandchildren, who reasonably believe that they will be denied the chance for prosperity because of us. 

Climate change: Some scientists suggest that climate change has reached the tipping point and that the earth’s ecology is beyond repair. In the U.S. one of our two major political parties (the one that currently – and for the foreseeable future – controls the Congress, and almost all of its presidential candidates, deny that it is a problem at all. The influence of wealthy anti-environmentalists is too powerful to be overcome. Even if we were willing to sacrifice in order to solve this problem, emerging nations in Africa, Asia, and elsewhere would not. Thus, a solution is hopeless.

Gun violence in the U.S. The will does not exist to reduce or even limit the amount and type of weapons of mass destruction in the hands of almost anyone living in this country. The Supreme Court’s decision broadly interpreting the Second Amendment and the power of the NRA mean that any meaningful limit on weaponry is impossible. The federal government is handcuffed and state laws are ineffectual as long as neighboring states don’t care.

Use of excessive force by local police officers. Perhaps related to the availability of weapons almost as much as profiling that inevitably involves race- and ethnic-based stereotypes, patrol officers in local departments fear the public they serve. Fear breeds contempt; authoritarianism breeds arrogance and anger on both sides. The institutional norm of militaristic unity leads to the code of silence among brothers in arms (and this usually crosses race and gender lines within the department). Coupled with inherent pro-police bias by prosecutors, judges (usually former prosecutors), legislators (also frequently former prosecutors) and city officials, there is little hope of serious reform. Increasing militancy by racial minorities who feel victimized by police brutality and political impotence will encourage a violent reaction (probably more serious than the Black Power / separatist movement of the 60’s).

Permanent underclass that is underemployed, uneducated, hopelessly mired in poverty. Urban and suburban police (the borderline in our megacities is blurred) are dealing with communities (ghettos) in which all the common ills are rampant and by now, have existed for decades. Schools in these areas have been poor for generations. This is particularly true in a sizeable percentage of the African American population, unable to assimilate into the mainstream of middle class culture. The concept of “upward mobility” that has been a myth of American exceptionalism doesn’t apply to the permanent underclass.  

Permanent homelessness. When I returned from a trip around the world in July 1975, I saw for the first time men sleeping in cartons on the streets of downtown L.A. I had been in Calcutta a few months before and saw similar things. Today it is so common a sight on our streets that we ignore it. Public and private charities provide minimal life support and our mental health care and drug rehabilitation systems have failed to solve the problem.

Incompetence in our major institutions: education; health care; criminal and civil justice; religion; government services (veterans, taxes, licenses, etc.). I lump these all together because it all seems that, like the organs of a dying body, all of these systems are beyond reclamation. The beginning of the end for these institutions happened with the so-called taxpayer’s revolt at the start of the 1970’s in California. Conservative radicals used the initiative process (that had been a progressive instrument intended to override official corruption in the early part of the century) to defund state and local governments. Proposition 13 reduced property taxes that were the main source of funding for state and local government. That was its intent; and it worked. The trend is now permanent. The public demands lower taxes but more and better government services. Science fantasy.  

Economic decline: loss of high paying unionized manufacturing jobs that built the middle class. We will never get these jobs back from overseas, no matter how much demagogic politicians moan about it. Outsourcing assembly line work is needed for the multi-national corporate bottom line. Low paying service jobs in health care, food, retail, and other such industries are going to be the backbone of US employment from now on. The transition to “green” and “high tech” related employment is promised but very uncertain. Globalization is generally good for Asians and Africans who strive to join the developed nations, but the transition is going to be painful for all societies.  

Political polarization; voter apathy; electoral control by the wealthy. At the turn of the 19^th century, federal state and local governments were controlled by the moneyed classes and used mostly for their own benefit. Corruption was normal. Progressive reforms swung the pendulum to some degree. Unions became a voting bloc that, along with the second generation of immigrant families that came of voting age in the 1930’s, made the system work. Americans are rarely energized enough to vote in high numbers by comparison to other democracies. Most are apathetic, confused, cynical, detached from the process. Each major party generally has about 40% of the vote; the remaining 10% who call themselves “independent” sway one way or the other for complex unpredictable reasons, often relating to momentary concerns. They are easily manipulated by the news, prejudices, or transitory emotions. A few wealthy contributors can manipulate elections by focusing on these few swing voters in a few swing states.  

Drug crime. As long as there is a demand, the supply will continue in this very profitable trade. Legalization of marijuana may change the economics relating to that drug, but there will be others. Illegality will always be part of the lure. So, methamphetamines, opiates, and recreational drugs such as ecstasy and whatever pharma can conceive will surely continue to thrive.

Fanatical radicalism; turning to terror as a tactic by the powerless for political or religious purpose; willingness to kill and commit suicide for a cause. Some people have always been attracted to these powerful self-destructive and murderous ideas. Combined with the increased availability of weaponry, there is no reason to expect this will abate.

Israel / Palestinians. This is on the list because it is the oldest of the deadly feuds that threaten world peace. As long as Islam resents the very existence of a Jewish nation on this “holy land” and as long as Israel distrusts any treaty with a neighboring Palestinian state as a threat to its existence, this sore spot will continue to be explosive. It provides a stimulus to pan-Islamic militancy.

The U.S. Supreme Court. You can blame the mess of our foreign policy in the Middle East and Persian Gulf to the Presidents Bush. And you can also blame them for the mess that four appointees to the Supreme Court have made of the constitution. Of all the far reaching mistakes, these appointments may have the most devastating impact. Election financing, reproductive rights, voting rights act limits, second amendment ruling, capital punishment . . . just the start of the damage. 

Reapportionment: In 2010, Republicans took advantage of low voter turnout during mid-term elections to win majorities in state legislatures and governorships even in previous “blue” states such as Wisconsin. The Republican legislators gerrymandered congressional districts so as to assure continuing majorities in congress and state legislatures at least until 2020 when the next reapportionment will occur. Once in control of state governments, Republicans rolled back progress on funding for poverty, health care, education, reproductive rights, unions, environment, etc. They also passed voter registration laws to further repress the Democratic Party vote in the future. 

Religion is here to stay. Some who argue that the greatest source of evil in the world is “religion” have a point, but it is irrelevant. Whether as some suggest, we are hard-wired to seek spiritual guidance, it is clear humans are drawn to religious faith and many are strongly influenced by faith, even when contrary to evidence. Many will prefer religious teaching to scientific proof. Thus, evolution, climate change, gender, family, and sexual issues are all subject to religious tests for many and will always be.

 A free press will not save us. Jefferson’s dictum was that democracy would work IF driven by an educated and informed electorate. We have depended on news media to inform us. They have failed. Corporate infotainment in commercial media is pervasive, permanent, and irretrievably flawed. The old saw, “if it bleeds, it leads,” is revealing. Anecdotal emphasis on violent, highly emotionally charged events instills fear. A crime spree in Atlanta causes people in Los Angeles to buy guns and vote to toughen laws. Sound bites replace analysis, politicians and experts need to give instant, short, meaningless answers to complex questions.

Social media is an unreliable savior. More people today get their news thru their portable devices than from print or traditional broadcast media. The argument in its favor is that it is broader, less corporate dependent, and freer. Others counter that reporting is notoriously unreliable. Vetting of reporting for accuracy is spotty. There are no accepted standards for fact checking, no limits relating to taste, sensationalism, gossip, or bias. Still, the future belongs to social media and there is no likelihood that it will go away. The threatened suppression by governments of this source will not defeat it; it is too pervasive now.

Privacy is a diminishing reality. Governments will continue to monitor telecommunications on the basis of national security and crime suppression. Corporations will come under increasing pressure from governments to cooperate by turning over customer records. The battle between encryption and decryption is permanent. Cyber crime and cyber terrorism will increase in importance and be a part of life for the foreseeable future.

This depressing list is probably incomplete. But what all of the examples have in common is a sense that we have lost the ability to make progressive meaningful change at least for the foreseeable future.

As to the micro worries . . . it turns out that we were right to put cancer at the top of the list. In fact, we could have ended the list right there. Yet, now at this stage of life, my personal worries are too ordinary, numerous and omni-present to be reduced to any list. 

Maybe it is nature’s trick to occupy our minds with impossible conundrums while it destroys us from the inside. Clever.